A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China

Motivations: Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease caused by the hepatitis virus (HBV). Approximately 390,000 people in China die from HBV-related diseases each year. Around 86 million individuals suffer infections of virus, accounting for about 6% total population region. There are approximately 30 chronic infections. From 2002 to 2007, China’s government took part “The Global Alliance Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI)” initiative, which helped reduce cases HBV among children. However, incidences remain persistently high China. Accurately estimating number potential crucial preventing controlling transmission virus. Up until now, there were no studies Methods: this study was based on data National Bureau Statistics 2003 2021; dynamic model built, included compartment The parameters fitted using combination nonlinear least-squares genetic algorithm methods. Results: calculated reproduction within Rc = 1.741. Considering existing vaccine inefficiency rate 0.1, estimates 449,535 (95%CI [415,651, 483,420]) infections, constituting 30.49% cases. Date fitting MATLAB reveals that increasing vaccinations can effectively Conclusions: results reveal so patients rises To better control an optional prevention strategy needed increase vaccination different age groups, it necessary help public correctly understand ensure adequate protection.